Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98b8…16fa other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$3
other 22% $0
sports 17% $0
crypto 10% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.8%
all 31 +0.0% -9.5% 32% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage294d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $132 −$4 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 -7%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $8 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 8h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $44 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $44 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $44 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $44 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $44 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $47 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 12d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 184d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 276d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 277d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 277d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 277d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.27 · official $39.27 (match) · 117 history records