Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98b8…5c1b crypto 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%162W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$40
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 163 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 163 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.5%
all 163 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×73.66 per $1 lost it wins $73.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses162 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage10d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records