Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98b7…658a
crypto · 36 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$4 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage149d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 0 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Namibia 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Zimbabwe 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 14 $1 +$2 +170%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Apr 03 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies Feb 23 $9 −$3 -33%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $18 +$13 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 22 $5 +$9 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 20? Feb 20 $7 +$1 +8%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 19 $27 −$1 -2%
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 18 $5 +$1 +22%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 15? Jan 17 $1 $0 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? Jan 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 15? Jan 17 $5 $0 +4%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 17 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% +$12
sports 22% +$8
other 18% −$26
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2h
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies SELL India 71¢ $2 104d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies SELL West Indies 28¢ $3 104d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies BUY India 79¢ $1 104d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies BUY West Indies 22¢ $1 104d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies BUY India 80¢ $4 104d
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies BUY West Indies 22¢ $1 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? BUY No 97¢ $3 106d
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies SELL West Indies 99¢ $8 110d
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs West Indies BUY West Indies 71¢ $6 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 94% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 94% 50% -3.4%
≤90d 18 +15.7% +4.6% 94% 56% -2.2%
all 36 +1.7% -8.0% 78% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 42% -10.8%
10% -16.8% 19% -19.3%
15% -24.8% 14% -27.1%
20% -32.2% 11% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records