Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98ac…50f5 crypto 255 markets active 2d ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%245W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$52
other 22% −$8
economics 7% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 254 +0.4% -9.1% 96% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses245 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage241d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15? Jun 15 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $184 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 3? Jun 04 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 2? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 1? Jun 01 $171 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? May 30 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 24? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 24? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on May 24? May 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? May 19 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 15? May 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 02 $183 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $182 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 20 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 15? Apr 16 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 15 $182 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $181 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $181 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 28? Mar 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 26? Mar 26 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 25? Mar 25 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 24? Mar 24 $179 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on March 21? Mar 23 $179 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $119 45h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $69 45h
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $188 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $187 3d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $136 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $79 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $106 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $185 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $184 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $185 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $8 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $9 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $171 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $171 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $171 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $171 24d
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $48 27d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $59 27d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $64 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $171 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $170 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $170 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $70 37d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $170 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $183 52d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $183 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.94 · official $118.94 (match) · 561 history records