Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98ab…4b3e other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-10%) realized −$9 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$12
culture 15% +$4
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 67% -4.5%
≤30d 3 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 67% -4.5%
≤90d 8 -52.2% -56.8% 38% 38% -34.6%
all 19 -16.1% -24.1% 47% 47% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 47% -20.0%
10% -31.3% 37% -27.7%
15% -38.0% 26% -34.7%
20% -44.0% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage205d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 30 $3 +$1 +25%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand P Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $3 +$2 +85%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pr Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 08 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $6 −$5 -76%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 06 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 30 $3 +$5 +178%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Nov 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes $2 43d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 78d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 92d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 92d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 92d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes $3 93d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pr SELL Yes $0 93d
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pr BUY Yes 20¢ $2 93d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes $0 190d
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 191d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 191d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand P BUY Yes 24¢ $2 191d
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 197d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? SELL Yes $0 197d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 197d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 197d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 197d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 198d
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 198d
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 198d
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 198d
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 199d
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 203d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 203d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.12 · official $15.12 (match) · 44 history records