Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98aa…8b8f
other · 145 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,655 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,258 · open −$216
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,426
Realized−$7,258
Unrealized−$216
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses76 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)266 / 145
History coverage133d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%
Chart Positions 22 History 266 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,704
7 days−$3,717
14 days−$4,436
30 days−$7,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $300 $415 +$116 (+39%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $198 $285 +$87 (+44%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $167 $224 +$57 (+34%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $163 $168 +$5 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $131 $127 −$3 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $98 $111 +$13 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $61 $41 −$20 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $24 −$27 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $42 $11 −$31 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $3 −$36 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $39 $1 −$38 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $39 $1 −$38 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$38 -196%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$34 -175%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$31 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$2,312
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 37m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 46m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 46m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 48m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 49m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 50m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 50m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 50m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 59m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -65.1% -68.5% 11% 10% -35.4%
≤30d 203 -52.5% -57.0% 17% 16% -41.3%
≤90d 241 -38.7% -44.5% 24% 20% -23.9%
all 266 -34.2% -40.5% 29% 23% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 23% -18.8%
10% -46.2% 15% -26.6%
15% -51.4% 13% -33.7%
20% -56.2% 11% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,425.55 · official $1,425.65 (match) · 1148 history records