Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

98 0x98a7…86c5 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$79 · open −$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$254per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$1,572now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$206

7 days+$176

14 days+$176

30 days+$176

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+11.5%	+0.9%	67%	67%	+9.0%
≤30d	3	+11.5%	+0.9%	67%	67%	+9.0%
≤90d	7	+14.8%	+3.9%	71%	71%	-9.9%
all	7	+14.8%	+3.9%	71%	71%	-9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.9%	71%	-9.9%
10%	-6.0%	71%	-18.5%
15%	-15.1%	29%	-26.4%
20%	-23.4%	29%	-33.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 76% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$114 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.98 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$1,572

Realized+$79

Unrealized−$75

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)7 / 11

History coverage66d

Avg bet$254

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$522	$586	+$63 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$500	$422	−$78 (-16%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$359	$308	−$51 (-14%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$266	$256	−$10 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$598	+$171	+28%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$129	+$35	+28%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$137	−$29	-22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	May 01	$199	−$199	-100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Apr 28	$20	+$10	+52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Apr 25	$3	+$3	+95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Apr 22	$20	+$5	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$273	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$273	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$289	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$206	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$495	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	7¢	$164	28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$164	28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$26	5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$21	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$509	20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$34	20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$129	20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$86	20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$308	20d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	9¢	$1	20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$513	20d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	BUY No	9¢	$9	52d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	BUY No	8¢	$190	52d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	SELL No	84¢	$6	58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	BUY No	43¢	$3	61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	BUY No	66¢	$20	62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$25	62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY No	81¢	$20	65d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,571.84 · official $1,571.84 (match) · 47 history records