Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x98a5…2703 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-4%) realized −$118 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$200
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$86
other 10% +$19
crypto 5% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.7% +16.5% 65% 65% -1.9%
≤30d 44 -7.9% -16.6% 43% 39% -5.1%
≤90d 44 -7.9% -16.6% 43% 39% -5.1%
all 44 -7.9% -16.6% 43% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 39% -5.1%
10% -24.6% 32% -14.2%
15% -31.9% 30% -22.5%
20% -38.6% 25% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$27 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage13d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $165 +$89 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -72%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $175 +$71 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$103 -51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/ Jun 17 $41 +$152 +371%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$49 -80%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $451 −$321 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$20 +76%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $91 +$41 +45%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $304 +$57 +19%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $301 +$52 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $202 +$102 +51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $119 +$85 +71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $60 +$59 +99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 +$25 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$42 -54%
Otto Virtanen vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$11 +112%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Gill vs. Romano: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $10 −$1 -12%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $6 −$1 -27%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $47 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$2 +9%
Stojsavljevic vs. Kostyuk: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 09 $16 −$1 -5%
Darwin Blanch vs. Christopher O'Connell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $20 −$4 -19%
Lukas Pokorny vs. Alex Barrena: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi Jun 05 $16 −$1 -8%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kacper Knitter vs Adam Majchrzak Jun 05 $8 −$4 -54%
ITF Kayseri: Adhithya Ganesan vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 05 $4 +$3 +82%
ITF Kayseri: Daniel Phillips vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 05 $3 −$2 -76%
ITF Focsani: Nicole Gadient vs Sara Victoria Balan Jun 05 $4 −$1 -17%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Bora Sengul Jun 05 $4 $0 +7%
ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Ann Akasha Ceuca Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $254 37m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $165 54m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 56m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $76 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $96 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $99 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $100 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd BUY 36¢ $31 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/ BUY 21¢ $41 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $130 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $451 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $46 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 31h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $2 31h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 88¢ $130 31h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 60¢ $91 31h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 31¢ $25 32h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Felix Gill 65¢ $351 32h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 54¢ $304 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $301 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $305 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $202 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 94 history records