Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98a5…65be crypto 585 markets active 20h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$759 (+20%) realized +$759 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%301W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day100.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$95
14 days−$137
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 45% -20.7%
≤30d 582 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 49% -12.4%
≤90d 585 +0.6% -9.0% 51% 49% -12.2%
all 585 +0.6% -9.0% 51% 49% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 49% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 46% -20.6%
15% -25.7% 40% -28.3%
20% -33.0% 33% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses301 / 284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)585 / 585
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day100.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 585 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$7 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +674%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$20 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records