Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98a3…5aa5 crypto 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+2%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%194W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$62
14 days−$8
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +3.4% -6.4% 49% 46% -11.6%
≤30d 238 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 48% -6.6%
≤90d 401 +2.4% -7.4% 48% 46% -10.5%
all 401 +2.4% -7.4% 48% 46% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 46% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -19.1%
15% -24.3% 41% -26.9%
20% -31.8% 39% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses194 / 207
Open positions0
Markets (closed)401 / 401
History coverage40d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 401 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$18 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$10 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$14 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$10 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$8 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$7 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$11 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$18 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$10 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$9 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$18 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $39 −$36 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$20 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$5 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$8 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$6 -75%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$20 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $21 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $22 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $18 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1067 history records