Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x98a3…9024 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$306 (+32%) realized +$296 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%29W / 27L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$399
7 days+$399
14 days+$399
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$323
other 9% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +76.5% +59.7% 79% 79% +60.3%
≤30d 56 +16.2% +5.1% 52% 52% +25.7%
≤90d 56 +16.2% +5.1% 52% 52% +25.7%
all 56 +16.2% +5.1% 52% 52% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.1% 52% +25.7%
10% -5.0% 52% +13.6%
15% -14.1% 52% +2.7%
20% -22.6% 52% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$296
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage24d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 46¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $75 +$58 +77%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$40 +277%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$41 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $125 +$81 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$29 +91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$29 +74%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 +$37 +112%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$29 +95%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $19 +$34 +176%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $17 +$10 +58%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $7 +$8 +115%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $8 +$9 +109%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score May 25 $12 −$12 -99%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $11 +$10 +91%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$12 +116%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5 May 24 $8 +$14 +176%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 24 $12 +$8 +69%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $13 −$13 -99%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza: O/U 0.5 May 24 $9 +$11 +121%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 24 $7 +$9 +124%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5 May 24 $8 +$7 +89%
Kristiansund BK vs. Viking FK: O/U 3.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Kristiansund BK vs. Viking FK: Both Teams to Score May 24 $6 +$16 +259%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $7 +$11 +158%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scor May 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $7 +$9 +132%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Score May 24 $11 +$14 +125%
Tottenham Hotspur FC leading at halftime? May 24 $10 +$15 +146%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 0.5 May 24 $10 +$12 +121%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 3.5 May 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $67 9m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $40 10m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $66 18m
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $54 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 3h
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $14 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $36 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $17 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $61 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $125 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $30 8h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $17 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 8h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $60 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $67 8h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $71 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 9h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $34 9h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 96¢ $53 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 9h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $19 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $39 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $31 12h
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 22d
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 22d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 22d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $17 22d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.33 · official $31.00 (match) · 91 history records