Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98a1…eaa8 crypto 653 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+5%) realized +$620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate42%271W / 382L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day134.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +4.7% -5.3% 51% 27% -8.7%
≤30d 653 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 20% -11.2%
≤90d 653 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 20% -11.2%
all 653 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 20% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 20% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 9% -19.7%
15% -26.5% 6% -27.5%
20% -33.7% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses271 / 382
Open positions0
Markets (closed)653 / 653
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day134.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 653 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records