Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98a1…d466 sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$152 (-40%) realized −$147 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$0
14 days−$13
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$114
other 16% −$32
crypto 13% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.9% -1.5% 58% 58% -9.2%
≤30d 54 -10.2% -18.8% 48% 46% -24.9%
≤90d 86 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 37% -48.2%
all 86 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 37% -48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 37% -48.2%
10% -32.8% 34% -53.1%
15% -39.3% 29% -57.7%
20% -45.2% 22% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage68d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +67%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 $0 -8%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 23 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 19 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +8%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $3 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 21h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 51¢ $3 33h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $4 33h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 72¢ $3 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: S BUY 19¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 2d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Emma Raducanu 79¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 71¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 3d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $1 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 81¢ $2 3d
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 8d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 8d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 13d
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 13d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.54 · official $3.54 (match) · 232 history records