Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x989e…7a15
weather · 620 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses427 / 174
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions19
Markets (closed)601 / 620
History coverage56d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 19 History 601 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$30
14 days−$16
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 86¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 90¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 81¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 79¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 73¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 71¢ 40¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 54¢ 9¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-84%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 97¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $1 +$4 +307%
Jesús Luzardo: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $0 $0 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $17 +$1 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $7 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 09 $0 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 5? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 7? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 09 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 6? Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 5? Jun 09 $0 $0 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 7? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 4? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +30%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 4? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 6? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 4? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 39% −$55
world 23% +$36
sports 15% −$57
other 15% +$41
politics 6% −$13
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 31h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 36h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $5 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 46h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 73¢ $4 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 83¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $4 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 29¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $4 2d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +14.5% +3.6% 86% 41% -0.0%
≤30d 476 +2.8% -6.9% 75% 32% -10.2%
≤90d 601 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 31% -10.5%
all 601 -0.2% -9.7% 71% 31% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 31% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 16% -19.1%
15% -26.2% 9% -26.9%
20% -33.5% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.07 · official $64.80 (match) · 1711 history records