Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x989e…aa30 crypto 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-6%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%154W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$22
14 days−$52
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% −$43
other 24% −$63
weather 18% −$22
politics 12% −$11
finance 9% −$20
sports 5% +$3
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -18.3% -26.1% 17% 3% -14.0%
≤30d 67 -11.5% -19.9% 12% 1% -14.7%
≤90d 356 -8.9% -17.6% 43% 36% -16.2%
all 356 -8.9% -17.6% 43% 36% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -16.2%
10% -25.5% 29% -24.2%
15% -32.7% 22% -31.6%
20% -39.3% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses154 / 202
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)356 / 356
History coverage56d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 356 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$2 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 −$5 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -31%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $0 $0 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -24%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $50 +$2 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 9? Jun 09 $28 −$11 -39%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $56 −$3 -5%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$14 -43%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 08 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 04 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3 May 31 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? May 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 30 $9 $0 -4%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 24 $41 −$1 -3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 24 $6 $0 -7%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? May 22 $18 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? May 22 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $3 48m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 52¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 53¢ $26 12h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 62¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 64¢ $22 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 64¢ $32 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 40¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 41¢ $16 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $22 36h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? SELL No 48¢ $9 45h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? SELL No 49¢ $15 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1109 history records