Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x989a…3689 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-30%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 11% -37.5%
≤30d 9 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 11% -37.5%
≤90d 9 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 11% -37.5%
all 9 -36.9% -42.9% 33% 11% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.9% 11% -37.5%
10% ← realistic here -48.3% 11% -43.5%
15% -53.3% 0% -48.9%
20% -57.9% 0% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records