Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9898…0a7d crypto 446 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$76 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%157W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$73
14 days−$300
30 days+$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% −$442
finance 24% +$216
other 22% +$411
world 12% −$49
weather 7% −$94
politics 5% +$36
tech 4% −$102
sports 1% −$35
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +4.6% -5.4% 40% 26% -5.5%
≤30d 161 -7.3% -16.2% 34% 19% -3.6%
≤90d 292 -48.7% -53.6% 18% 11% -18.8%
all 434 -14.1% -22.3% 36% 26% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 26% -9.0%
10% -29.7% 21% -17.7%
15% -36.5% 18% -25.7%
20% -42.7% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses157 / 277
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions12
Markets (closed)434 / 446
History coverage236d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 90,000 and 100,000 voters? Yes 0¢ 11¢ $1 $31 +$31 (+5275%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 81¢ 26¢ $81 $26 −$55 (-68%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? No 13¢ 32¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+142%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 83¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+593%)
Will Kiambo White be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will George Gluck be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Ethan Wechtaluk be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Alexis Goldstein be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$17 +130%
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $18 −$9 -50%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 17 $54 +$2 +4%
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $99 +$21 +21%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $842 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $294 −$8 -3%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +21%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $76 −$6 -7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$3 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$11 +34%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $121 −$8 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 13 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $205 −$83 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $152 −$14 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $40 −$18 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $101 −$33 -33%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $147 +$392 +266%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $78 +$78 +100%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $76 −$13 -17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $204 −$171 -84%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $60 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $33 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $28 −$7 -25%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 10 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $23 +$7 +32%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $228 −$18 -8%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $95 −$62 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 3m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $22 16m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $15 17m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $31 1h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $13 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $0 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $0 2h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $13 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 28¢ $53 3h
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3h
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $54 5h
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 6h
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 41¢ $120 8h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 9h
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 33¢ $91 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 33¢ $8 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.12 · official $81.98 · 2379 history records