Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9897…6b8e crypto 756 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,258 (+27%) realized +$12,538 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%380W / 391L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day164.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$962
sports 6% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -47.7% -52.7% 34% 34% -29.2%
≤30d 771 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 48% -7.8%
≤90d 771 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 48% -7.8%
all 771 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 48% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 48% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 48% -16.6%
15% -26.3% 46% -24.7%
20% -33.5% 46% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$54 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$12,538
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses380 / 391
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)771 / 756
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day164.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 771 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 49¢ 40¢ $245 $202 −$42 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $240 $2 −$237 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $490 +$325 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $416 +$584 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $253 −$245 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $164 +$67 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $240 +$260 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $145 −$141 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $170 +$39 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $234 +$266 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $243 −$240 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $109 +$18 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $242 +$258 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $212 +$113 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$33 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.97 · official $234.96 · 3500 history records