Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x9896…c430
sports · 292 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,256 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,117 · open −$139
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$805
Realized−$2,117
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses142 / 144
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions6
Markets (closed)286 / 292
History coverage82d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 286 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$270
7 days−$227
14 days−$1,561
30 days−$924
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $273 $299 +$26 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 73¢ 77¢ $146 $154 +$8 (+5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 64¢ $103 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 55¢ 19¢ $247 $86 −$161 (-65%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $97 $83 −$14 (-15%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $77 $79 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Spurs 65¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$160 +160%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 +$56 +113%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $104 +$75 +72%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$29 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $89 −$89 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $174 −$174 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $695 −$695 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $91 −$91 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $39 +$35 +90%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 03 $9 +$11 +119%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $8 +$9 +114%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $23 +$20 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $119 −$119 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 30 $56 +$29 +52%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) May 30 $28 +$31 +109%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $225 +$146 +65%
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on May 28? May 28 $500 +$269 +54%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 28 $242 +$61 +25%
Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5) May 28 $17 +$14 +86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 27 $30 +$37 +124%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) May 26 $11 +$9 +83%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo May 24 $5 +$9 +172%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $7 +$6 +76%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) May 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky May 21 $45 +$31 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $399 +$174 +44%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $112 −$112 -100%
1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $44 −$43 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$2,975
other 4% +$206
world 3% +$511
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 51¢ $87 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 51¢ $11 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $99 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $273 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $146 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $27 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $50 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $259 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $179 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $61 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $2 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $6 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $24 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $100 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $129 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $9 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $90 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $200 25h
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 73¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 2d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 73¢ $63 2d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 72¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.5% -46.1% 31% 31% -32.3%
≤30d 56 -23.7% -31.0% 41% 41% -28.0%
≤90d 286 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 49% -17.2%
all 286 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 49% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 49% -17.2%
10% -22.5% 48% -25.1%
15% -29.9% 45% -32.3%
20% -36.8% 42% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.60 · official $804.60 (match) · 1311 history records