Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9894…6d3d crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$395 (+6%) realized +$398 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%36W / 4L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$4
crypto 37% −$10
finance 7% +$412
economics 0% $0
other 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -2.7% -12.0% 94% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 92% 0% -9.8%
all 40 +0.7% -8.9% 90% 5% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -3.7%
10% -17.6% 2% -12.9%
15% -25.6% 2% -21.3%
20% -32.9% 2% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.2 per $1 lost it wins $26.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$398
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses36 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage144d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,470 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on May 29? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 22? May 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Mar 14 $2 $0 +19%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $412 +$412 +100%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Jan 29 $1,529 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,466 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,470 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $32 20d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 1? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.88 · official $40.88 (match) · 85 history records