Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9892…0a7b other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$835 (+3%) realized +$837 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate39%39W / 62L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$34
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$19
other 27% +$293
politics 14% +$109
crypto 9% +$568
finance 4% +$39
tech 4% −$48
culture 3% −$114
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -6.0% -15.0% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 24% 3% -9.1%
all 101 +6.2% -3.9% 39% 19% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 19% -6.9%
10% -13.1% 14% -15.8%
15% -21.5% 14% -24.0%
20% -29.2% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized+$837
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses39 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage148d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $453 $450 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 23 $474 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $465 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $444 $0 -0%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- Jun 16 $455 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $440 +$39 +9%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 12 $360 −$5 -1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $325 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 10 $380 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 10 $428 +$6 +1%
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? Jun 10 $375 +$5 +1%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $420 −$5 -1%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 04 $390 +$1 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $425 −$5 -1%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 26 $365 +$5 +1%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? May 25 $395 −$5 -1%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? May 23 $414 −$6 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 22 $440 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 21 $420 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $450 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $450 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 20 $430 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 14 $453 −$3 -1%
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? May 13 $79 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $400 −$15 -4%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Apr 21 $450 −$6 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $686 −$15 -2%
Will RIKU Dining Group Ltd’s market cap be less than $90M at market cl Apr 11 $430 −$7 -2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $186 +$3 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Mar 28 $444 +$24 +5%
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Mar 28 $360 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 27 Mar 26 $450 $0 +0%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Mar 25 $432 +$6 +1%
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? Mar 25 $456 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Mar 24 $456 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 23 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 23 $58 −$4 -6%
Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 23 $450 −$6 -1%
Unit FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 23 $468 −$6 -1%
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31? Mar 14 $450 −$6 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Mar 14 $472 −$12 -2%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 11 $432 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "State of the Union" during Ohio visit? Mar 11 $432 +$18 +4%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Mar 10 $410 +$63 +15%
Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars? Mar 09 $480 −$114 -24%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? Mar 07 $492 +$6 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March? Mar 06 $438 +$12 +3%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Mar 05 $474 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 Mar 05 $498 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 3 BUY No 91¢ $453 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $105 18h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 19h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $300 19h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 20h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 20h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $52 20h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $474 43h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $465 4d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $465 4d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $444 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $435 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 8d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 8d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 91¢ $455 8d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY No 91¢ $455 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $479 8d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $440 12d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL Yes 71¢ $355 12d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY Yes 72¢ $360 12d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $325 13d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $325 13d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $380 14d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $380 14d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $434 14d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $428 14d
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? SELL No 76¢ $380 14d
Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $375 14d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $415 16d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 3¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.50 · official $450.50 (match) · 255 history records