Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x988e…d0d0 weather 864 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$161 (+3%) realized +$120 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate67%577W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$14
14 days+$62
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$39
other 8% +$70
world 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.3% -6.6% 75% 75% -6.5%
≤30d 78 +5.6% -4.5% 79% 76% -1.1%
≤90d 857 -5.3% -14.3% 67% 55% -7.9%
all 857 -5.3% -14.3% 67% 55% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 55% -7.9%
10% -22.5% 45% -16.7%
15% -30.0% 28% -24.7%
20% -36.9% 13% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses577 / 280
Open positions7
Markets (closed)857 / 864
History coverage88d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 857 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? No 90¢ 98¢ $223 $245 +$22 (+10%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $217 $215 −$2 (-1%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $106 $121 +$14 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? No 76¢ 78¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? No 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? No 70¢ 70¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Yes 57¢ 97¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$12 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $28 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 +$12 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $28 +$9 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$6 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$13 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 +$7 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$5 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $22 +$7 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$5 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$10 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $28 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -99%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Jun 10 $143 +$41 +28%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $282 +$44 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$6 +28%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $110 +$26 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 08 $28 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$7 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $24 +$9 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 88¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 70¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 75¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $32 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 74¢ $30 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 71¢ $30 38h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY No 85¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 72¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 73¢ $30 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 80¢ $4 3d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June BUY Yes 80¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? BUY No 68¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 67¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 68¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $24 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 66¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 67¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $28 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $14 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $22 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $28 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $14 9d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 75¢ $24 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $12 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 75¢ $22 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.99 · official $687.99 (match) · 1647 history records