Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x988d…9899 sports 1185 markets active 2h ago coverage 292d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$181,731 (-9%) realized −$181,681 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%571W / 608L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,698per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$6,775est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$338
7 days−$26,004
14 days−$43,411
30 days−$33,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$96,659
other 15% −$78,744
economics 1% −$50
crypto 0% +$946
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -28.9% -35.7% 54% 31% -74.8%
≤30d 107 +0.1% -9.4% 52% 37% -26.9%
≤90d 346 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 40% -31.3%
all 1179 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 44% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 44% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 40% -25.5%
15% -29.4% 35% -32.7%
20% -36.4% 27% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,883) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,303 vs −$1,514 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

292d coverage
Net worth$3,907
Realized−$181,681
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses571 / 608
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$6,775
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1179 / 1185
History coverage292d
Avg bet$1,698
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $3,007 $3,005 −$2 (-0%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ 14¢ $596 $542 −$54 (-9%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid $204 $204 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 57¢ 60¢ $149 $156 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 23 $338 −$338 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 21 $1,057 −$1,050 -99%
Will EDward Gaming be the last CN team standing at Masters London Jun 20 $284 +$6 +2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $4,385 −$4,296 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,038 −$1,021 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,340 +$757 +32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $12,906 −$12,700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2,305 +$1,830 +79%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $316 +$259 +82%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $9,846 −$9,700 -98%
Will FUT Esports be the last EMEA team standing at Masters London Jun 17 $509 +$1 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $938 +$242 +26%
Will Xi Lai Gaming be the last CN team standing at Masters London Jun 16 $266 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,293 +$4,068 +124%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $743 +$406 +55%
Will G2 Esports be the last AMER team standing at Masters London Jun 15 $459 +$1 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,100 +$946 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,780 −$1,757 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $1,354 −$1,336 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $568 −$561 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,788 −$1,760 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $8,252 +$2,129 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 +$1,109 +365%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $835 +$914 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,641 +$650 +40%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $9,047 −$8,950 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,629 −$1,600 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,647 −$1,634 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,115 +$1,172 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,084 −$1,071 -99%
Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10,190 −$10,000 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rival Esports vs Chiefs Esports Club (BO1) - Asia P Jun 09 $700 +$1 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $2,404 +$583 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $723 −$703 -97%
Will Lyon qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 08 $420 +$1 +0%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $5,255 +$2,745 +52%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $7,241 −$7,094 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $9,814 +$8,113 +83%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $5,005 +$1,796 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $2,413 +$514 +21%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 07 $29 +$14 +50%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $342 +$149 +44%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $505 +$288 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1,218 1h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 75¢ $174 13h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 74¢ $267 13h
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY No 74¢ $1,371 13h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY ECHO 57¢ $151 18h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 78¢ $1,057 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $4,076 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,038 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $309 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $12,906 3d
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid $210 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $2,340 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1,164 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1,141 4d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $314 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $2 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $9,846 6d
Will FUT Esports be the last EMEA team standing at Masters London BUY No 100¢ $509 6d
Will EDward Gaming be the last CN team standing at Masters London BUY Yes 98¢ $284 6d
Will Xi Lai Gaming be the last CN team standing at Masters London BUY No 97¢ $266 6d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $175 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $938 6d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $87 6d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $87 6d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $261 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $3,293 7d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 64¢ $743 8d
Will G2 Esports be the last AMER team standing at Masters London BUY No 100¢ $459 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1,780 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1,100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,906.75 · official $3,906.75 (match) · 3186 history records