Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x988b…b4f4 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$796per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$12
economics 38% −$12
other 15% −$2
crypto 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 31 -0.1% -9.7% 68% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,048) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage233d
Avg bet$796
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? Mar 27 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 07 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 28? Feb 11 $38 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $3,511 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $4,600 −$5 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 04 $4,612 −$5 -0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 21? Dec 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10? Dec 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 3? Dec 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 1? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 20? Dec 01 $50 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 05 $2,065 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Nov 05 $2,048 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $2,052 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 57d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $33 57d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $28 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $98 109d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 115d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 115d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $150 119d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 148d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $35 155d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 155d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $3,496 160d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3,500 160d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,496 160d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,500 160d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,507 160d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3,511 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 167d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $4,595 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.85 · official $112.85 (match) · 231 history records