Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x988b…e331 other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$490 (-12%) realized −$491 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%20W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$541
7 days−$351
14 days−$376
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$339
other 44% −$106
crypto 2% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 35% -17.9%
≤30d 54 -15.6% -23.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
≤90d 54 -15.6% -23.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
all 54 -15.6% -23.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 35% -18.0%
10% -30.9% 33% -25.8%
15% -37.6% 31% -33.0%
20% -43.7% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$53 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$491
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses20 / 34
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage9d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$35 +68%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $49 +$113 +231%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$70 +69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $305 −$19 -6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $349 +$244 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $399 −$393 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $437 +$78 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$48 +95%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $188 +$228 +121%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +106%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$56 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$39 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 −$28 -37%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $43 +$60 +139%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$35 +340%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$108 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 0m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $85 3m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $47 3m
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 1h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $287 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $304 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $51 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $593 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $51 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $349 24h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $399 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 46h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $516 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.89 · official $99.11 · 85 history records