Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x9889…2247 sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$291 (+12%) realized +$490 · open −$199
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$248
14 days+$248
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$168
crypto 26% +$110
other 24% −$148
politics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +66.9% +51.0% 78% 78% +49.4%
≤30d 9 +66.9% +51.0% 78% 78% +49.4%
≤90d 20 +47.8% +33.7% 65% 65% +43.5%
all 68 +14.6% +3.7% 49% 44% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 44% +3.8%
10% -6.2% 41% -6.1%
15% -15.3% 38% -15.2%
20% -23.6% 37% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$490
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage217d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 83¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $41 +$50 +124%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$57 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$77 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 +$26 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $10 +$10 +94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $78 +$44 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $51 +$71 +139%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $23 +$28 +124%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $41 −$26 -63%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $21 −$20 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $22 +$22 +101%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $20 +$17 +83%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $51 +$33 +65%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $21 +$57 +276%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $15 −$10 -70%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Radford Highlanders vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jan 30 $20 +$34 +170%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MASONIC (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jan 18 $6 +$3 +55%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $56 +$46 +82%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 09 $37 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 08 $22 −$10 -43%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jan 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Pelicans vs. Hawks Jan 08 $1 −$1 -60%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 08 $24 +$19 +78%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $28 +$13 +47%
Mavericks vs. Kings Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Dec 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ohio State vs. Indiana Dec 07 $22 −$20 -90%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Dec 06 $50 −$46 -92%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 28 $10 +$49 +488%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $20 +$28 +142%
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files? Nov 27 $40 −$7 -16%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 20? Nov 20 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on November 20? Nov 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 19? Nov 19 $60 +$10 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 19? Nov 19 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%? Nov 19 $20 −$6 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $155 +$12 +8%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 18? Nov 18 $70 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $40 −$3 -7%
Bulls vs. Nuggets Nov 18 $30 +$23 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $41 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $81 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 46h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 87¢ $20 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 44¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $78 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $2 51d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Rockets 100¢ $122 51d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $23 52d
Magic vs. Pistons SELL Magic $15 52d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 41¢ $51 52d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic $41 52d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $21 55d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $44 55d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 56d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 49¢ $22 56d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 60¢ $51 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 26¢ $21 57d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Nuggets 15¢ $4 57d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 49¢ $15 58d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $25 58d
Radford Highlanders vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose BUY Presbyterian Blue Hose 54¢ $20 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.20 (match) · 130 history records