Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9888…05a8 crypto 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+4%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%397W / 101L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day171.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 -2.0% -11.3% 80% 70% -6.7%
≤30d 498 -2.0% -11.3% 80% 70% -6.7%
≤90d 498 -2.0% -11.3% 80% 70% -6.7%
all 498 -2.0% -11.3% 80% 70% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover171.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 70% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 34% -15.6%
15% -27.5% 7% -23.8%
20% -34.7% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses397 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)498 / 498
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day171.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 498 Trades
no open positions (101 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1265 history records