Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9886…eded other 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,938 (-16%) realized −$1,925 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$229
14 days−$391
30 days−$2,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 43% −$1,556
other 27% −$108
world 17% +$26
sports 10% −$235
crypto 2% −$57
tech 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 30% -42.9%
≤30d 42 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 36% -40.6%
≤90d 42 -10.7% -19.2% 38% 36% -40.6%
all 49 -8.2% -17.0% 45% 33% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 33% -24.5%
10% -24.9% 33% -31.7%
15% -32.2% 29% -38.3%
20% -38.8% 22% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$108 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$1,925
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage234d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $69 −$25 -37%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$158 +317%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$21 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$55 +265%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 +$49 +95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$41 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$25 +42%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $146 −$146 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 10 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 −$10 -10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $196 +$204 +104%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $132 +$66 +50%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 06 $143 +$55 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $21 +$20 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 28 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +81%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $52 −$4 -7%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? May 27 $4 −$2 -59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? May 27 $2,748 −$1,045 -38%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? May 27 $1,318 −$618 -47%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11? May 27 $56 −$56 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $560 +$132 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $418 +$32 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $2,002 +$26 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Feb 08 $1,928 +$52 +3%
Big Game: Octopus? Feb 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Feb 07 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Feb 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL Poker Face 27¢ $4 26m
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL Poker Face 27¢ $9 26m
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL Poker Face 28¢ $20 26m
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL Poker Face 27¢ $4 26m
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL Poker Face 27¢ $6 26m
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag SELL Poker Face 27¢ $1 26m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $51 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Poker Face 36¢ $5 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Poker Face 36¢ $1 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Poker Face 36¢ $5 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Poker Face 36¢ $7 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Poker Face 36¢ $11 1h
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Poker Face 49¢ $40 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $3 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $28 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $20 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $6 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $3 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $2 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $15 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $3 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $15 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $102 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $64 38h
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.38 · official $56.38 (match) · 301 history records