Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x9881…446f crypto 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,468 (-4%) realized −$2,468 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate72%129W / 51L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$12
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$762
crypto 27% −$5,142
sports 25% +$933
politics 15% +$963
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +1.1% -8.5% 77% 6% -8.8%
≤30d 80 +2.1% -7.6% 82% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 80 +2.1% -7.6% 82% 5% -8.4%
all 180 -2.2% -11.6% 72% 26% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 26% -13.4%
10% -20.0% 22% -21.7%
15% -27.7% 16% -29.3%
20% -34.8% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$256 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses129 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage229d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $42 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $39 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $37 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $35 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $29 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $29 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $32 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $30 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $37 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records