Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x987e…8d7a sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,042 (+9%) realized +$2,945 · open +$97
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%112W / 78L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$355est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$601
7 days+$2,353
14 days+$3,535
30 days+$3,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1,859
other 19% +$1,016
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +23.5% +11.7% 72% 64% +13.8%
≤30d 122 +8.0% -2.3% 64% 58% +3.0%
≤90d 190 -0.5% -9.9% 59% 54% -1.7%
all 190 -0.5% -9.9% 59% 54% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 54% -1.7%
10% -18.6% 52% -11.1%
15% -26.4% 47% -19.7%
20% -33.6% 41% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$138 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$2,945
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses112 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage41d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Rooster 51¢ 100¢ $100 $197 +$97 (+97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $131 +$109 +83%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $305 +$341 +112%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $305 +$347 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $203 +$189 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $300 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $152 +$108 +71%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $254 +$258 +102%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $152 +$167 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 +$130 +64%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $223 +$218 +98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$120 +40%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $505 +$241 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $304 +$198 +65%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 13 $203 +$253 +124%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,002 +$61 +6%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $203 +$203 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $203 +$197 +97%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $203 +$179 +88%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$71 +70%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $304 +$261 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $501 +$20 +4%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 159.5 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $203 +$175 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $502 +$93 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$53 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $96 −$95 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $203 +$214 +105%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $304 −$300 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $304 +$241 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $79 −$77 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $304 +$222 +73%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $304 +$80 +26%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $204 −$7 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $305 +$334 +109%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5) Jun 09 $203 +$214 +105%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 08 $101 +$71 +70%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 51¢ $101 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 54¢ $131 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 48¢ $203 22h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 46¢ $305 23h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ $101 27h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $101 27h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 41h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 46¢ $305 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 98¢ $300 41h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 58¢ $152 45h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY Dallas Wings 47¢ $152 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $254 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $202 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $202 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 50¢ $102 3d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 50¢ $223 3d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 64¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $101 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 60¢ $202 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $303 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $505 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $203 4d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $304 4d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $304 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 44¢ $203 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $203 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 94¢ $1,002 5d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 49¢ $203 5d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $304 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.76 · official $196.76 (match) · 324 history records