Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x987b…3d00 sports 392 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,085 (-3%) realized −$3,106 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%182W / 206L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$1,073est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$413
14 days−$19,506
30 days−$12,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,740
other 2% −$1,471
crypto 0% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 52% -18.0%
≤30d 194 -33.3% -39.6% 38% 35% -31.2%
≤90d 376 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 43% -14.0%
all 388 -14.1% -22.2% 47% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 44% -13.8%
10% -29.7% 41% -22.0%
15% -36.5% 35% -29.6%
20% -42.7% 31% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$165 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized−$3,106
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses182 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,073
Open positions4
Markets (closed)388 / 392
History coverage98d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 62¢ 66¢ $400 $429 +$29 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$80 +79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$209 +69%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $201 +$32 +16%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $707 −$700 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +477%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$41 -40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $910 +$289 +32%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $121 −$11 -9%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $405 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $101 27h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $101 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 91¢ $514 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $304 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 86¢ $201 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $707 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $173 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 5d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $51 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 6d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $51 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.64 · official $451.09 (match) · 1155 history records