Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x987a…e530 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-18%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$6
sports 44% $0
other 3% $0
weather 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.3% -37.0% 43% 0% -30.2%
≤30d 12 -40.6% -46.2% 33% 8% -24.9%
≤90d 13 -38.4% -44.3% 31% 8% -23.7%
all 14 -42.8% -48.3% 29% 7% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 7% -26.4%
10% -53.2% 7% -33.5%
15% -57.7% 7% -39.9%
20% -61.9% 0% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -55% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage139d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $2 $0 -10%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings May 30 $5 +$2 +36%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 25 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on January Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Down $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Down $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Down $0 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records