Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x987a…d921 weather 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$91 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate88%228W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$54
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$82
weather 12% −$42
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -6.1% -15.1% 86% 21% -12.4%
≤30d 157 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 22% -10.1%
≤90d 259 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 22% -10.7%
all 259 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 22% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 22% -10.7%
10% -20.9% 14% -19.3%
15% -28.6% 8% -27.1%
20% -35.6% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses228 / 31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)259 / 262
History coverage50d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? No 92¢ 73¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? No 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 21 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on Jun Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 98¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY No 28¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 96¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 99¢ $7 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 68¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $5 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on Jun BUY No 99¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $7 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.35 · official $19.34 (match) · 556 history records