Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9877…c72e sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$163 (+5%) realized +$166 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$162
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$89
sports 49% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -40.3% -46.0% 29% 29% -15.7%
≤30d 50 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 34% -7.9%
≤90d 50 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 34% -7.9%
all 50 -22.5% -29.9% 34% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 34% -7.9%
10% -36.6% 32% -16.7%
15% -42.7% 28% -24.7%
20% -48.3% 18% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$23 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage10d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $61 −$3 -6%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$40 +39%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $56 −$29 -52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$32 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 −$3 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$22 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$40 +50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$20 -20%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $81 −$80 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $303 +$86 +28%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 +$75 +57%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$17 -34%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $111 +$18 +16%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$52 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$25 -81%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$60 +234%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 +$52 +64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$23 -88%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $19 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 59¢ $57 11h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 13h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $61 14h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $141 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 26h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 3¢ $2 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $83 34h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $31 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $73 36h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 39¢ $25 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 36h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $25 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 40h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 47h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 47h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 100¢ $133 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.79 · official $118.13 · 101 history records