Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x9876…1950 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-51%) realized −$203 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$50
other 30% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-74.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -36.4%
≤30d 2 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -36.4%
≤90d 4 -64.2% -67.6% 25% 25% -59.9%
all 5 -71.3% -74.1% 20% 20% -63.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.1% 20% -63.1%
10% -76.5% 20% -66.7%
15% -78.8% 20% -69.9%
20% -80.9% 0% -72.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$50 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage94d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos Jun 27 $80 +$35 +43%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $85 −$83 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $89 −$86 -97%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $115 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos SELL Kiwoom Heroes 42¢ $115 1h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. NC Dinos BUY Kiwoom Heroes 28¢ $80 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $85 21h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 44d
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-04-10? BUY Yes 10¢ $89 77d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 92d
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.60 · official $111.60 (match) · 8 history records