Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x9875…bd8c
other · 4 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$3 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage101d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%
Chart Positions 1 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Mar 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $6 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$4
world 37% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 56m
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 59d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 59d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $2 76d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $2 97d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 97d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -38.7% -44.5% 0% 0% -58.9%
all 3 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 33% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 33% -25.7%
10% -32.5% 33% -32.8%
15% -39.0% 0% -39.3%
20% -45.0% 0% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $2.72 (match) · 7 history records