Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9875…c37a weather 72 markets active 3h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate69%49W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$84
14 days−$93
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$8
weather 30% +$14
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 12% -15.7%
≤30d 58 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 12% -10.7%
≤90d 71 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 14% -9.5%
all 71 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 14% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 14% -9.5%
10% -22.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -30.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses49 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage70d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 25? No 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 24 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? Jun 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 23? Jun 23 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$6 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 −$4 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 22 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $374 −$95 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $27 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? SELL No 95¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $21 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? SELL No 95¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? SELL No 95¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? SELL No 94¢ $22 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $21 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $24 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $24 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $24 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $22 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $22 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 94¢ $22 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $21 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? SELL No 74¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $11 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $24 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $23 33h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $23 34h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $23 39h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 98¢ $19 40h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 98¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.38 · official $26.38 (match) · 240 history records