trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $77 | $72 | −$5 (-7%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 57¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-3%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 78¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 20¢ | 1¢ | $50 | $1 | −$49 (-97%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $51 | +$24 | +47% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $51 | +$127 | +250% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $45 | +$19 | +42% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | Jun 02 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? | Jun 02 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | May 24 | $26 | −$19 | -72% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? | May 23 | $51 | +$24 | +46% |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? | May 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | May 16 | $51 | +$28 | +56% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +112.9% | +92.6% | 100% | 100% | +95.2% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 50% | 50% | -16.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 50% | 50% | -16.9% |
| all | 10 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 50% | 50% | -16.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 50% | -16.9% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 50% | -24.8% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 50% | -32.1% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 20% | -38.8% |