Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9870…06a8 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$164 (-20%) realized −$165 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$164
other 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 41 -30.0% -36.7% 27% 27% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 27% -30.7%
10% -42.8% 27% -37.3%
15% -48.3% 24% -43.4%
20% -53.4% 22% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$165
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage195d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 13 $28 +$38 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18? Dec 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 18 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 16 $7 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 16 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 15 $10 +$12 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 15 $4 +$4 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 15 $2 +$4 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 13? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Dec 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Dec 12 $46 −$41 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 12 $45 −$41 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 12 $20 +$15 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on December 1 Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 1 Dec 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 1 Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 10AM ET Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 12? Dec 11 $20 +$67 +333%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 13? Dec 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 13? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 12? Dec 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9AM ET Dec 11 $130 −$21 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8AM ET Dec 11 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 11 $18 +$61 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 11 $16 +$26 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $66 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $12 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18? BUY Down 19¢ $8 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18? BUY Down 34¢ $17 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 187d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 189d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.70 · official $105.70 (match) · 219 history records