Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x986a…4e19 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,412 (-22%) realized −$5,407 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$694per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days−$925
14 days−$2,111
30 days−$2,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$739
other 28% −$3,316
sports 16% −$1,563
economics 4% −$1,000
culture 1% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 45% -44.3%
≤90d 20 -24.0% -31.2% 45% 45% -44.3%
all 35 -31.4% -38.0% 43% 37% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 37% -29.5%
10% -43.9% 34% -36.2%
15% -49.3% 23% -42.4%
20% -54.3% 17% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$570 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$5,407
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage346d
Avg bet$694
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $275 $270 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $307 −$300 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $231 −$225 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $298 +$327 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $448 −$441 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $746 −$739 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $352 −$348 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $502 −$496 -99%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $402 +$123 +30%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 +$131 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $83 +$117 +140%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $310 +$90 +29%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $246 −$244 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $174 +$76 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $255 +$145 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $104 +$46 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $206 −$203 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $244 +$252 +103%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 15-21? Sep 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? Sep 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times? Sep 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $115K July 14–20? Sep 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 1? Sep 15 $100 +$17 +16%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Sep 15 $1,796 −$1,796 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $124K July 14–20? Jul 21 $5,000 +$73 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in July? Jul 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 17 $1,833 +$3,685 +201%
Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July? Jul 16 $2,000 +$539 +27%
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 16 $1,250 +$94 +8%
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 16 $1,000 +$253 +25%
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 16 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $281 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $231 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $298 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $448 8d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $746 8d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $352 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $502 9d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 100¢ $524 9d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $202 10d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $402 10d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $83 11d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $246 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 11d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $310 11d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $174 11d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $104 12d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $206 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $255 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $495 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 15-21? BUY Yes $500 281d
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times? BUY No 42¢ $200 307d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 307d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? BUY No 48¢ $1,175 308d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? BUY No 47¢ $481 308d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? BUY No 48¢ $9 308d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.71 · official $269.71 (match) · 88 history records