trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 45% | 45% | -44.3% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -24.0% | -31.2% | 45% | 45% | -44.3% |
| all | 35 | -31.4% | -38.0% | 43% | 37% | -29.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.0% | 37% | -29.5% |
| 10% | -43.9% | 34% | -36.2% |
| 15% | -49.3% | 23% | -42.4% |
| 20% | -54.3% | 17% | -48.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $275 | $270 | −$5 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 24 | $307 | −$300 | -98% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $103 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $306 | −$300 | -98% |
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $231 | −$225 | -98% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $298 | +$327 | +109% |
| Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 | Jun 17 | $448 | −$441 | -98% |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $746 | −$739 | -99% |
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $352 | −$348 | -99% |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $502 | −$496 | -99% |
| Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $402 | +$123 | +30% |
| Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) | Jun 16 | $202 | +$131 | +65% |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 | Jun 15 | $83 | +$117 | +140% |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $310 | +$90 | +29% |
| Spread: Sweden (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $246 | −$244 | -99% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $21 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $174 | +$76 | +44% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $255 | +$145 | +57% |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | Jun 14 | $104 | +$46 | +44% |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $206 | −$203 | -99% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $244 | +$252 | +103% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 15-21? | Sep 17 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? | Sep 15 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 225–239 times? | Sep 15 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $115K July 14–20? | Sep 15 | $75 | −$75 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 1? | Sep 15 | $100 | +$17 | +16% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? | Sep 15 | $1,796 | −$1,796 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 09 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Jul 21 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $124K July 14–20? | Jul 21 | $5,000 | +$73 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in July? | Jul 20 | $3,000 | −$3,000 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | Jul 17 | $1,833 | +$3,685 | +201% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July? | Jul 16 | $2,000 | +$539 | +27% |
| Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | Jul 16 | $1,250 | +$94 | +8% |
| Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | Jul 16 | $1,000 | +$253 | +25% |
| Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | Jul 16 | $1,100 | −$1,100 | -100% |