Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9869…1a45 sports 677 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,095 (-2%) realized −$4,080 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%415W / 247L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$725est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$761
7 days−$706
14 days−$357
30 days−$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$501
other 23% −$2,750
world 2% −$156
politics 1% −$10
culture 1% −$325
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +45.9% +32.0% 91% 73% -78.7%
≤30d 62 +5.5% -4.6% 81% 37% -27.5%
≤90d 514 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 39% -20.5%
all 662 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 42% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 42% -11.8%
10% -18.0% 33% -20.2%
15% -25.9% 26% -27.9%
20% -33.2% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$183 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized−$4,080
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses415 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$725
Open positions16
Markets (closed)662 / 677
History coverage129d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk Marta Kostyuk 97¢ 97¢ $574 $573 −$1 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $84 $71 −$14 (-16%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 28 $763 −$763 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $5 +$1 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko AND Bad Hombu Jun 26 $1 +$3 +346%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $60 +$11 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$21 +42%
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $32 +$19 +60%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $107 +$6 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $151 +$57 +38%
ITF Luque: Marjorie Souza vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso Jun 18 $345 +$285 +83%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $321 −$319 -100%
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 14 $31 +$29 +91%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $200 +$17 +8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Daniel Merida Aguila Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $34 +$28 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Kato/Samsonova vs Dabrowski/Stefani Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
ITF Madrid: Neus Torner Sensano vs Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez Jun 10 $75 +$7 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
ITF Madrid: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Margaux Maquet Jun 10 $146 +$7 +5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$4 -25%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $74 +$21 +29%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Federica Urgesi Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $118 +$62 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Peru leading at halftime? Jun 09 $60 +$4 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 08 $185 −$183 -99%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $1 $0 +21%
Syria leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bahrain leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki vs. AC Nagano Parceiro end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 97¢ $110 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 97¢ $232 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Nadia Podoroska vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 97¢ $232 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $389 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 94¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $239 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $100 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 90¢ $2 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko AND Bad Hombu BUY 22¢ $1 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $500 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tatjana Maria 69¢ $2 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $201 4d
Trump goes to space in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 95¢ $1 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $100 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $32 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $5 7d
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $107 8d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $10 8d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $200 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $911.61 · official $911.61 (match) · 2265 history records