Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x9868…e82b sports 836 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,583 (+17%) realized +$14,405 · open +$178
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%445W / 386L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$866est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$347
7 days+$2,170
14 days+$4,373
30 days+$8,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$10,135
other 5% +$1,291
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +70.9% +54.6% 51% 46% +7.6%
≤30d 279 +23.6% +11.8% 49% 47% +13.3%
≤90d 746 +13.9% +3.1% 49% 46% -2.5%
all 831 +19.1% +7.7% 54% 49% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.7% 49% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -2.6% 46% -8.0%
15% -12.0% 42% -16.9%
20% -20.6% 37% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$68 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized+$14,405
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses445 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$866
Open positions5
Markets (closed)831 / 836
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$105
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 831 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ 100¢ $200 $384 +$184 (+92%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ 99¢ $100 $177 +$77 (+77%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 100¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+4897%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 36¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels $9 $1 −$8 (-91%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 56¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Ehrenschneider vs Kudernatsch Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $152 +$144 +95%
Mathis Bondaz vs. Filiberto Fumagalli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $76 −$8 -11%
Nicolas Ifi vs. Melios Efstathiou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $239 −$235 -98%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 +$158 +129%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $91 +$109 +119%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $4 +$13 +329%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $406 −$400 -99%
Astakhova vs. Basiletti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$95 +1845%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $152 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Izquierdo vs. Assche: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Izquierdo vs. Assche: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $223 +$163 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $153 +$107 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $312 +$54 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$72 +697%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $14 +$11 +76%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $54 +$54 +101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 +$10 +117%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $81 +$43 +54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $73 +$74 +102%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $82 +$226 +277%
Taborda vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$495 +9612%
Taborda vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Taborda vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $151 +$119 +79%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$24 +100%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1,002 +$75 +8%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $586 −$55 -9%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $73 −$72 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 1m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels $9 46m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $101 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $101 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $10 2h
Set 2 Winner: Ehrenschneider vs Kudernatsch BUY Ehrenschneider $10 2h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 61¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 62¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 47¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 49¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 51¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 49¢ $102 4h
Mathis Bondaz vs. Filiberto Fumagalli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 34¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 65¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 67¢ $40 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $14 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 42¢ $15 9h
Nicolas Ifi vs. Melios Efstathiou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $1 10h
Nicolas Ifi vs. Melios Efstathiou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 33¢ $1 10h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 37¢ $5 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 44¢ $31 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 43¢ $102 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 43¢ $102 11h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $9 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.95 · official $584.95 (match) · 3500 history records