Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x9868…64b0 sports 46 markets active 3d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$442 (+1%) realized +$1,059 · open −$617
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,607per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$963est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$848
14 days+$2,641
30 days+$2,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,687
other 17% −$1,210
crypto 11% −$680
world 6% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.0% +18.5% 67% 67% -7.7%
≤30d 6 +47.7% +33.7% 83% 83% -4.2%
≤90d 34 +2.5% -7.3% 65% 59% -7.3%
all 40 -2.7% -12.0% 62% 58% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 58% -7.6%
10% -20.4% 40% -16.5%
15% -28.1% 28% -24.5%
20% -35.1% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$999) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,281 vs −$2,254 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$2,383
Realized+$1,059
Unrealized−$617
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$963
Open positions6
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,607
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $854 +$354 (+71%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $425 −$75 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $354 −$146 (-29%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $312 −$188 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $188 −$313 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15,126 +$26,099 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $25,746 −$25,427 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 12 $859 +$176 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $357 +$406 +114%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 04 $714 +$125 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $2,036 +$1,262 +62%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 17 $605 +$228 +38%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $808 +$283 +35%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 04 $600 +$274 +46%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $557 +$292 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 03 $318 +$505 +159%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $733 −$367 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 23 $348 −$331 -95%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $254 −$199 -78%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $251 +$50 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $3,500 +$892 +26%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $850 −$850 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 16 $375 +$17 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $3,080 −$419 -14%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $2,998 −$704 -24%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $835 +$336 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 28 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $400 −$399 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 28 $270 +$110 +41%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 28 $680 +$189 +28%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $999 $0 +0%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 23 $600 +$88 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22? Mar 22 $1,013 +$58 +6%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 22 $202 +$27 +13%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 22 $251 +$44 +17%
Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $144 +$30 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $338 −$335 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $1,640 −$1,140 -70%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 15 $689 +$182 +26%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 14 $185 −$185 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 20 Mar 14 $11 +$5 +42%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $244 +$96 +39%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $163 −$163 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $64 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $403 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $7,440 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $11,114 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $7,686 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $9,109 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,078 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $44 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $38 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,566 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $151 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 80¢ $1,035 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,048 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $357 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 64¢ $859 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $838 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $714 13d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 89¢ $1,092 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,383.48 · official $2,383.48 (match) · 209 history records