Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9867…ea53 sports 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,713 (-2%) realized −$4,710 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%119W / 105L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$971per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$2,750est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,071now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$5,006
other 6% −$12,801
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 57% 48% +1.9%
≤30d 72 -3.9% -13.1% 54% 50% -18.0%
≤90d 224 +5.7% -4.3% 53% 52% -12.8%
all 224 +5.7% -4.3% 53% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 52% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -21.1%
15% -21.9% 43% -28.8%
20% -29.5% 34% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,190) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$685 vs −$850 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,071
Realized−$4,710
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses119 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,750
Open positions4
Markets (closed)224 / 228
History coverage65d
Avg bet$971
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 40¢ $1,568 $1,549 −$19 (-1%)
Will Deep Cross Gaming win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $437 $438 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be 1+ Pentakills at MSI? No 31¢ 35¢ $66 $75 +$9 (+13%)
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+250%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $690 +$310 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,469 −$1,451 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $635 +$505 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,790 −$1,760 -98%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $294 −$289 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $899 −$885 -98%
Will FURIA qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? Jun 18 $250 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $712 −$707 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $143 +$5 +3%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,277 +$356 +28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $447 +$553 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $592 −$38 -6%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,052 +$1,382 +131%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $98 +$190 +194%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $60 +$53 +90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,403 −$35 -2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $814 −$807 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,579 +$2,421 +94%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,819 +$1,456 +52%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,204 +$2,026 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $707 −$422 -60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,026 +$512 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,396 +$1,490 +107%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,835 −$4,803 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $737 −$192 -26%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,585 +$981 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $995 −$995 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,451 −$3,427 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $485 −$432 -89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $520 −$289 -56%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $299 +$252 +84%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $966 +$945 +98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $293 −$288 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,525 +$488 +32%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,757 −$1,551 -88%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,274 +$1,202 +94%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $765 +$735 +96%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,005 +$340 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,951 +$1,097 +37%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $113 +$138 +122%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$35 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,295 +$535 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $647 −$647 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $460 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $540 −$539 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,619 −$2,571 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,629 +$2,580 +158%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,180 +$820 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $1,596 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $106 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $4 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $2 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $111 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $11 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $111 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $67 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $48 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $160 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $11 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $3 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $34 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $1,469 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 44¢ $1,790 44h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 50¢ $133 2d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $40 2d
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $635 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $858 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 45¢ $41 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,071.22 · official $2,071.22 (match) · 1382 history records