Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9865…f6af sports 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$331 (+3%) realized +$140 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%153W / 284L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$444
14 days−$193
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$216
crypto 2% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -67.6% -70.7% 12% 12% -67.3%
≤30d 90 +8.9% -1.5% 31% 31% -10.3%
≤90d 379 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 33% -10.4%
all 437 -2.9% -12.2% 35% 34% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 34% -8.2%
10% -20.6% 33% -17.0%
15% -28.3% 33% -25.0%
20% -35.3% 32% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$19 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses153 / 284
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)437 / 438
History coverage99d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 11¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $28 +$26 +95%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 13 $14 +$16 +114%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $18 +$25 +135%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $26 +$82 +320%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 09 $41 −$25 -61%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $20 +$32 +156%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 06 $31 +$45 +148%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 05 $25 +$83 +339%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 03 $15 +$20 +130%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 02 $20 +$71 +345%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 30 $34 +$74 +218%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $20 +$19 +94%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $26 +$25 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $20 +$30 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 11¢ $13 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 5¢ $6 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 16¢ $14 3h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $54 10h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 13¢ $8 11h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 35¢ $19 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 11¢ $2 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $4 24h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $6 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $19 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 20¢ $6 26h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 18¢ $14 26h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 17¢ $6 34h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL NC Dinos 79¢ $31 35h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 21¢ $8 35h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 86¢ $43 35h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 36¢ $18 35h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 2¢ $1 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 13¢ $3 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 9¢ $1 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 6¢ $1 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 10¢ $3 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 11¢ $6 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 33¢ $24 2d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 5¢ $1 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 13¢ $5 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 16¢ $5 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 25¢ $4 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 14¢ $6 3d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 33¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 1305 history records