Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x9865…274d other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$19
politics 36% −$18
sports 6% +$29
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -2.9% -12.2% 3% 3% -9.7%
all 125 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×10.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage115d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $372 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $301 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $286 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $288 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $271 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $332 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $330 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $259 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $312 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $316 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $227 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $331 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $259 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $876 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $282 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $235 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $302 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $343 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $332 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $294 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $316 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 7h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 15h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 17h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 9d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 9d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $48 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $301 20d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $301 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $286 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $286 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $271 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 351 history records