Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

98 0x9862…9f3d sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,666 (+85%) realized +$2,665 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate93%14W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$196per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$43est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$11

30 days−$11

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)+0.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	-28.6%	-35.4%	50%	50%	-35.4%
≤90d	8	+17.7%	+6.5%	88%	38%	+70.3%
all	15	+11.3%	+0.7%	93%	20%	+69.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.7%	20%	+69.9%
10%	-8.9%	20%	+53.7%
15%	-17.7%	20%	+38.8%
20%	-25.8%	13%	+25.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +88% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

79% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$189 vs −$20 · ×9.44 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×132.17 per $1 lost it wins $132.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage

Net worth$180

Realized+$2,665

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)93%

Wins / losses14 / 1

Est. fees paid−$43

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage140d

Avg bet$196

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	57¢	$150	$151	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena	Jun 09	$20	+$9	+42%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez	Jun 09	$20	−$20	-99%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	May 11	$3	$0	+6%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5	May 11	$96	+$90	+93%
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)	Mar 31	$2,822	+$2,544	+90%
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	Mar 30	$3	$0	+1%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?	Mar 30	$3	$0	+3%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?	Mar 30	$4	$0	+5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Mar 07	$1	$0	+8%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?	Mar 07	$2	$0	+0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?	Mar 07	$7	$0	+1%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Feb 23	$1	$0	+1%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside	Feb 23	$1	$0	+10%
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem	Feb 23	$1	$0	+3%
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes a	Feb 23	$1	$0	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$152	1h
Cattolica: Max Hans Rehberg vs Roberto Carballes Baena	BUY Roberto Carballes Baena	70¢	$20	10d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez	BUY Leylah Fernandez	71¢	$20	10d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5	BUY Over	51¢	$96	39d
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)	SELL Jazz	52¢	$22	80d
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)	BUY Jazz	52¢	$11	81d
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)	BUY Jazz	52¢	$11	81d
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)	BUY Jazz	52¢	$1,344	81d
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)	BUY Jazz	52¢	$1,456	81d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?	BUY Yes	95¢	$4	103d
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?	BUY No	97¢	$3	103d
US forces enter Iran by March 7?	BUY No	99¢	$3	103d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February?	BUY No	99¢	$7	116d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$2	116d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	BUY No	94¢	$3	116d
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	BUY Yes	99¢	$1	140d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	93¢	$1	140d
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes a	BUY Yes	95¢	$1	140d
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem	BUY Yes	97¢	$1	140d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside	BUY Yes	91¢	$1	140d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.89 · official $179.89 (match) · 33 history records