Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9862…f5e3 crypto 467 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,978 (+3%) realized +$4,978 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate82%418W / 90L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,017
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -26.0% -33.1% 63% 16% -22.9%
≤30d 508 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 15% -12.6%
≤90d 508 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 15% -12.6%
all 508 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 15% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 15% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 10% -20.9%
15% -29.2% 7% -28.6%
20% -36.1% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$187 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$4,978
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses418 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)508 / 467
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$354
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 508 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $872 −$872 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $464 −$928 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $423 −$423 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $545 −$545 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $618 −$618 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $348 −$348 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1,347 +$79 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $524 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $913 +$76 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $1,305 +$44 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $221 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $1,123 +$178 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $522 −$520 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $55 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.16 · official $107.16 (match) · 3500 history records