Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x9861…eb5f other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$7
other 42% +$6
politics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$6
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 9% -8.4%
≤90d 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 9% -8.4%
all 37 +2.5% -7.2% 30% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 11% -8.3%
10% -16.1% 5% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.1%
20% -31.6% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage257d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $172 −$1 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $139 +$4 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $34 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $126 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $48 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $39 +$7 +18%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $18 +$6 +35%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $2 $0 +19%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $47 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $53 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $26 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $10 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $17 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $15 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $12 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $29 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records