Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x985d…f98b other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-37%) realized −$130 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$77
sports 16% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -61.8% -65.4% 19% 19% -37.0%
≤30d 36 -61.8% -65.4% 19% 19% -37.0%
≤90d 36 -61.8% -65.4% 19% 19% -37.0%
all 36 -61.8% -65.4% 19% 19% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.4% 19% -37.0%
10% -68.7% 19% -43.0%
15% -71.8% 19% -48.5%
20% -74.5% 17% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $45 +$67 +150%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$15 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $6 +$7 +119%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $44 −$44 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$3 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$14 +93%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $44 13h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 42h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 43h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.29 · official $16.29 (match) · 61 history records